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First months of 2011 'rocky': CBI

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Image The first few months of 2011 will be "quite rough" for the British economy, the head of employers' organisation the CBI has warned. Sir Richard Lambert struck an upbeat tone on the longer-term prospects for the UK, but said: "The first months of the year are going to be the really bumpy, gritty ones. We've got VAT going up, I think we will start to see the impact of the cuts on the construction sector a bit more, one or two other things. I think the first months of this year will be quite rough." But he also pointed to positive indicators on the economy, including a strengthening of private sector investment. "The big question is will the private sector have the capacity to more than offset the coming weakness in the public sector. And I think it will but it's going to be, especially in the first few months, quite rocky." Sir Richard - knighted in Friday's New Year honours list - predicted that the "natural elastic" in the economy would help it rebound from the recession and said export orders for manufacturing were picking up "very sharply". The key factor to watch would be employment, he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "If, as we hope, unemployment only rises modestly this year and employment starts to strengthen as the year goes on, then consumer confidence and business confidence will build and the second half of the year will feel better than the first half."

Queen attends an engagement a day

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Image Despite her advancing years the Queen has continued her busy working life - carrying out, on average, at least one official engagement each day of 2010. Figures published in The Times newspaper indicate the 84-year-old conducted 444 visits, opening ceremonies and other engagements in 2010 - 69 more than she was involved with in 2009. Long past retirement age, summer is the Queen's busiest season, and includes attending the Royal Windsor Horse Show, Royal Ascot, Trooping the Colour and three garden parties at Buckingham Palace. Her winter programme includes attending the Royal Variety and Film Performances, along with broadcasting her annual Christmas message to the nation. In November, with the Duke of Edinburgh, she was involved in a five-day state visit to Abu Dhabi - the couple's second state visit to the UAE, the first having taken place in 1979. The aim of the visit was to help strengthen Britain's ties with the region. The Queen also addressed the UN General Assembly, and visited Ground Zero in New York in July. Philip was also busy, notching up 356 official engagements in 2010. The busiest member of the Royal Family was the Prince of Wales, who was involved with a total 585 official engagements throughout the year, including opening the 2010 Commonwealth Games in Delhi in September. Prince William carried out 73 engagements, which included 45 overseas, and Prince Harry 53, which included 38 overseas. Tim O'Donovan, who compiles a survey of the official engagements undertaken by the Royal Family each year, says that, except for Christmas Day and Easter Day, the Queen never has a day off from the official red boxes which pursue her everywhere.

Inquiry after riot at open prison

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Image A high level investigation is under way after balaclava-clad inmates at an open prison went on the rampage and torched buildings in a New Year's Day mutiny sparked by an attempted clampdown on contraband alcohol. A number of buildings were burned to the ground at Ford Prison, near Arundel, West Sussex, during the violent spree which started in the early hours of Saturday. Prison officials said the disturbance was successfully resolved by specially trained prison staff by 10pm on Saturday. It was claimed that only two prison officers and four support staff were on duty at the time to manage a population of almost 500 inmates. But Michael Spurr, chief executive officer of the National Offender Management Service, said staffing levels were considered appropriate and he played down the extent of the damage. Mr Spurr said: "These types of incidents in open prisons are rare and it is to the credit of all the staff involved that no staff or prisoners sustained significant injuries during the incident. Staffing levels at the prison at the time the incident began were risk assessed and considered appropriate and usual for an open establishment such as Ford. A high level investigation will commence immediately to ascertain the causes and circumstances surrounding the incident and those involved may be liable to criminal charges." Prisons Minister Crispin Blunt said 150 prisoners had been moved to closed conditions, either because they were involved in the disturbances or because of damage to their accommodation. Throughout the day, authorities struggled to regain control but the situation worsened at lunchtime when three further accommodation blocks were burned to the ground. The arson attacks claimed a total of six accommodation blocks, a gymnasium, a mail room, a snooker room and a pool room including 10 newly-installed pool tables. Mark Freeman, deputy general secretary of the Prison Officers' Association, said alcohol had been a concern at the jail for some time, with dozens of empty bottles found in recent days. He added that prisoners turned violent after they refused to be breathalysed. Mr Freeman likened recent attempts to test inmates for alcohol to "a scene out of Benny Hill", with officers chasing prisoners for days on end. Mr Freeman said: "In the early hours, staff tried to breathalyse a number of prisoners because they suspected they had been drinking, which I think we can say with some certainty because of the amount of alcohol found over recent days and weeks. It's been a concern here for a long time about the amount of alcohol prisoners are able to get."

Call for housing market stability

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Image Home ownership should no longer be seen as a long-term financial investment, Housing Minister Grant Shapps has declared. Calling for a new era of stability, he said it was "horrendous" that house price growth had so outstripped earnings since the 1990s. In an interview with The Observer, he suggested the Government could help to limit further price rises by encouraging the building of more homes. He also apparently spoke of a "rational" market in which house prices fell in real terms, by increasing by less than earnings. His comments will please would-be home owners who have been priced out of the market by the recent decade-long boom but may alarm people who have already invested in property. "This government absolutely supports peoples' aspiration to own a home," he said. "But we also believe that (property) should be primarily thought of as a place to be your home." Mr Shapps, a Tory minister, described the enormous rise in prices between 1997 and 2007 as a "crazy period" which had left many younger people struggling to buy a home. "I think it is horrendous that a first-time buyer would need to be 36 on average if they do not have the support of mum and dad," he said. "The main thing everyone requires for their subsistence is a roof over their head and when that basic human need becomes too expensive for average citizens to afford, something is out of kilter. I think the answer is house-price stability." Liberal Democrat peer Lord Oakeshott said high house prices were a "curse for the young" and called for greater acceptance of renting. "We must end our unhealthy British obsession with owner occupation for all," he said. "We should make long-term renting, both fully commercial and in the social-housing sector, a flexible and accessible option as in Germany and Switzerland."

Control orders 'set to be scrapped'

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Image Control orders imposing virtual house arrest on terror suspects are set to be scrapped after months of wrangling within the coalition, it has been reported. In what would represent a significant victory for Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, the Cabinet was said to be ready to approve a plan to end the use of electronic tags and home curfews. The Sunday Times claimed that terror suspects would be allowed to travel freely within Britain and be allowed to use mobile phones and computers. A review of counter-terrorism legislation was due to report before Christmas but has been delayed until early 2011 because of ongoing negotiations between ministers. Mr Clegg's Liberal Democrats fought the general election on a manifesto commitment of abolishing control orders. Introduced under the former Labour government, they have been strongly criticised by civil liberties campaigners but police and the security services have repeatedly stressed the need to be able to contain suspects they are not able to charge. The review, also looking at the controversial 28 day pre-charge detention period for terror suspects, was announced by Home Secretary Theresa May in July. It is being overseen by former director of public prosecutions and Lib Dem peer Lord Macdonald of River Glaven. Nine people are currently subject to control orders, each with a 16-hour home curfew.

Millions have data stored by police

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Image Millions of innocent people have their details stored on police databases after reporting a crime. Forces across England and Wales have amassed data about people who dial 999 or non-emergency numbers to report their concerns or pass on information. West Midlands Police, the second largest force, holds 1.1 million records of people who have reported offences over the past 12 years. Others, including Lancashire, Cleveland, Avon and Somerset, Gloucestershire, West Mercia and North Wales, hold more than 150,000 each. Senior officers admitted the information could be used against people as part of any future police investigation. They insisted gathering the data was necessary to fight crime, protect the vulnerable and ensure concerns were dealt with properly. But critics said the vast databases were further evidence of a creeping database state in which information on the innocent was held alongside criminals and suspects. Evidence of the police databases was collected in a series of requests by the Press Association under the Freedom of Information Act. The majority of forces said it was not possible to collect the information because the scale of the task was too big. The records included details of millions of victims of crime as well as suspects and offenders. Forces said personal information was spread across up to 22 databases and warned details of the same person could be recorded several times. They said staff and officers were following guidance published by the National Policing Improvement Agency (NPIA). In some cases, police staff not only record names, addresses and contact details, but ask about the callers' date of birth and ethnicity. Gus Hosein, of Privacy International, said: "There's a point where the police stop seeing members of the public as the people to be protected and rather see them all as potential criminals. Until now, this only happened in non-democratic states, but I fear that this line has been crossed in ours. This only goes to show how far the last government went in promoting this view that we are all criminals, and my understanding is that while this government has cut the NPIA, which is a first step, a culture change in the way we are governed and protected is the next one." Ian Readhead, director of information at the Association of Chief Police Officers (Acpo), said forces should only record information relevant to the call. The retired Hampshire deputy chief constable admitted an "amicable exchange of information" could be used against callers in the future but said most people would expect police to hold on to it.

Two charged over teenager's murder

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Image Police have charged two teenagers over the murder of a teenager shot dead in the stairwell of a housing estate. Sylvester Akapalara, 17, was killed on the fourth floor of Heron House on the Pelican Estate in Peckham, south London, on Wednesday. He had been shot in the head and chest. Scotland Yard said Sodiq Adeojo, 18, of Shurlands Gardens, Peckham, and a 17-year-old boy had been charged over the murder. Both will appear before Camberwell Green Magistrates Court on Monday. Sylvester, a promising athlete, was found bleeding to death on the stairwell of the tower block shortly after 4.30pm on Wednesday. Paramedics were called, but he was pronounced dead at the scene. In online tributes, the dead teenager - a member of the Herne Hills Harriers athletics club - was remembered as a "star in the making" by friends.

Fares hike hits rail passengers

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Image Inflation-busting rises in rail and Tube fares have taken effect with some mainline season tickets going up almost 13%. Passenger groups have reacted with fury to the rises but the Government and London mayor Boris Johnson say the increases are necessary to support vital transport projects. Overall, main line fares are rising by an average of 6.2%, with regulated fares, which include season tickets, going up by average of 5.8%. But as these are just the average rises, some fares are going up by far more than this. On services run by the Southeastern train company, regulated fares are allowed to rise by an average of 7.8% to account for extra investment in the franchise, including the high-speed Javelin trains. This means a Ramsgate-London season ticket goes up 12.8% to £4,376, while an Ashford International-London season ticket rises 12.7% to £4,328. Other passengers facing above-the-average increases from today include those travelling on services run by the Southern train company between Haywards Heath and London where season tickets are going up 7.69% to £3,304. A season ticket between Brighton and London on Southern rises 7.68% to £3,532. The 5.8% average main line rail increase in regulated fares (which include season tickets) is based on the July 2010 retail prices inflation (RPI) figure of 4.8% plus 1%, with train companies allowed to use "flex" (flexibility) to average out the increase. Anthony Smith, chief executive of rail customer watchdog Passenger Focus, said: "Many passengers returning to work in the new year will be baffled about why they are paying much higher figures than the 'averages' published by the train companies. For many passengers, this flexibility won't appear fair. "With the train companies again free to raise fares on individual routes, some passengers will be facing rises way above inflation and in some cases it will be back to the bad old days of double-digit fare increases." A spokesman for the Association of Train Operating Companies said: "The RPI flex has existed since privatisation and was waived in 2009 by the Government but, as expected, it has now been reinstated by the Department for Transport. "The average increase allowed in January is RPI plus 1%. Any fare increased by more than this must be balanced by another fare reducing by the same amount. The use of flex means that some fares will go up by less than 1%. Importantly, the average is weighted so that operators cannot increase fares on routes with lots of passengers, and likewise reduce them on routes with fewer passengers."

Reservoirs bid cuts off more homes

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Image More than 60,000 homes endured a night without water in Northern Ireland as engineers temporarily cut off supplies to allow depleted reservoirs to refill. While progress has been made reconnecting properties left without any water during the burst pipes crisis, thousands of people, the majority in the east of the region, had their supply switched off for up to 12 hours. Around 2,600 homes are still without any supply at all, despite more than 2,500 being reconnected on Saturday. But with water still pouring out of leaks in the system, under-fire Government-owned utility Northern Ireland Water (NIW) was forced extend its on/off rotation system to other homes in order to replenish reservoirs. This is despite earlier expressing hope that the rotation would soon be discontinued. While 500 NIW staff battled to restore supplies to the region's crippled system, vandals were blamed for emptying out almost 5,000 gallons of water from temporary tanks in one of the badly hit areas in Coalisland, Co Tyrone. People arriving at bowsers at the Gortgonis Park centre to collect drinking water on Saturday morning found that the valves had been opened overnight. NIW replaced the tanks on Saturday afternoon. "NI Water would condemn the vandalism which took place in Coalisland which resulted in 5,000 gallons of water released from a water bowser," said a spokesman for the company. Local Assembly member Francie Molloy echoed the comments. "Why anyone would open valves knowing it would deprive their own community of water is beyond me," said the Sinn Fein representative. "It's absolutely crazy." Away from Coalisland, the areas worst affected by the water failures are Cookstown, Co Tyrone, Hannahstown near Belfast, and Burren and Warrenpoint in Co Down. Arctic weather conditions, followed by a sudden thaw, caused large numbers of burst pipes in buildings and in the mains supply, draining unprecedented amounts of water from the system.

Landlord bailed in Joanna probe

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Image Chris Jefferies, the landlord arrested over the murder of Joanna Yeates, is spending his first day on bail after being released by police. The 65-year-old was freed pending further inquiries on Saturday night after spending more than two days in custody being questioned on suspicion of killing the landscape architect, whose snow-covered body was found on Christmas Day. His release came hours after the 25-year-old's grieving family said they were "certain" her killer would be caught. Detectives from Avon and Somerset Police are continuing their investigation into the murder and said they were working tirelessly to bring the culprit to justice. Det Ch Insp Phil Jones said: "The incident room has been inundated with thousands of calls from members of the public who have provided us with information. This information is being scrutinised and followed up by specially trained officers who are exhausting every lead and avenue that we are provided with. "I would once again urge anyone who may not have called us to make contact with one of my officers and provide us with any information you may have. You may think your information is insignificant but please let us decide. This will be treated in confidence." Detectives are particularly keen to speak to anyone who may have used Longwood Lane in Failand, Bristol, between December 17, when Miss Yeates went missing, and Christmas Day, when her body was discovered there. Mr Jefferies, who lives above the Victorian flat Miss Yeates shared with her boyfriend Greg Reardon in Bristol's up-market Clifton area, was arrested on Thursday and held until Saturday night after police were granted more time to question him. The property, on Canynge Road, lies about three miles from where the young woman's body was found. Forensic investigations continue there and a high police presence remains in the neighbourhood. The landlord's release came after Miss Yeates's grieving parents, David, 63, Theresa, 58, and brother Chris said their lives had stopped as soon as she went missing. In an emotional statement read out by police on the picturesque Bristol riverside - one of Miss Yeates's cherished spots - they said: "From the moment that we received Greg's phone call on Sunday December 19 until now, time has had no meaning. We had a bad feeling from that moment, which deepened when we arrived in Bristol."

Joanna 'was not sexually assaulted'

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Image Police hunting the killer of Joanna Yeates have found no evidence she was sexually assaulted but said they were unable to rule out a sexual motive to her murder. Detectives also appealed for help in tracing a 4x4 vehicle seen near to where her snow-covered body was discovered on Christmas Day as they revealed they still do not know when and where the 25-year-old landscape architect died. Detective Chief Inspector Phil Jones, from Avon and Somerset police, said: "At this stage there is no evidence to suggest that Joanna was sexually assaulted. However, I have not ruled out that there might have been a sexual motive." Appealing for help in finding the 4x4, he said: "We have had a number of reports of vehicles in Longwood Lane during the late Friday evening and early hours of Saturday morning, including a possibly light-coloured 4x4 vehicle. "This 4x4 and the other vehicles may be completely unconnected but I urge anyone in that car or any other driver in the vicinity that night to come forward," he said. Speaking during a press conference, he revealed that there were still significant gaps regarding Miss Yeates's final hours. DCI Jones added: "I am satisfied that Jo got back to her flat but I'm not able to speculate whether she let somebody into the flat, whether somebody was already in there or whether someone broke into the flat. "At this time I cannot say where or when Jo was killed, or when her body was left on Longwood Lane. "The significant snowfall in the early hours of Saturday December 18 has a considerable impact on this and I am working with numerous forensic specialists to determine the timings." DCI Jones also raised the possibility of there being more than one person responsible when he told the press conference: "I can assure you, we are determined to solve this crime, and bring Jo's killers to justice."

Screen star Pete Postlethwaite dies

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Image Oscar-nominated actor Pete Postlethwaite has died after a long fight with cancer. Journalist and friend Andrew Richardson said Mr Postlethwaite passed away peacefully in hospital in Shropshire on Sunday. He was 64. Julie Walters led tributes to a man equally at home on a British stage or the set of a Hollywood blockbuster. Ms Walters, who worked with him at Liverpool's Everyman Theatre in the 1970s, told the Press Association: "He was quite simply the most exciting, exhilarating actor of his generation. "He invented 'edgy'. He was an exhilarating person and actor. "Spielberg was right when he said he was the best actor in the world." Mr Postlethwaite, who was made an OBE in 2004, was once described by director Steven Spielberg as "probably the best actor in the world today". In response, Mr Postlethwaite, who worked with him on The Lost World: Jurassic Park and Amistad, joked: "I'm sure what Spielberg actually said was, 'the thing about Pete is that he thinks he's the best actor in the world'." Mr Postlethwaite's films included Brassed Off, The Usual Suspects, The Shipping News, Inception and Romeo & Juliet. He received his Oscar nomination for his performance as Guiseppe Conlon in the 1993 film In The Name Of The Father, about the wrongful convictions of the Guildford Four for an IRA bomb attack.

Costs 'put Britons off exercise'

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Image Britons are being put off exercising regularly by the high cost of gyms and leisure centres, research suggests. A third of people of all ages think they are too expensive, rising to 42% for 18 to 24-year-olds. This compares to 19% of those aged over 55 who do not exercise because of the cost. The survey of more than 2,000 people, carried out for the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), also shows 18% blame the British weather for their lack of activity. Time pressures caused by work and family commitments are another main reason why people do not exercise, with 36% mentioning it. Students said they did not have enough time, with two-fifths blaming busy lifestyles for not getting active. The laziest group, however, appeared to be the 18 to 24-year-olds, with a third saying they just could not be bothered to exercise. Experts at the WCRF are worried the public are ignoring the health benefits of exercise, including the evidence that it reduces the risk of cancer. Deputy head of science Rachel Thompson said: "It is a concern that so many people feel that financial cost is stopping them being more physically active." She suggests other ways of exercising should be considered by those who cannot afford to join gyms or use leisure centres. "People can take up brisk walking or running, or start playing a sport that they enjoy. Even hobbies such as dancing or gardening can count." Dr Thompson believes the positive effects of exercise should not be ignored. "Scientists estimate that about 10,000 cases of breast and bowel cancer could be prevented every year in the UK if we all did regular moderate physical activity."

Body located after boat capsizes

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Image Police divers searching for two missing men after a boat carrying six passengers capsized have found a body, police said. Rescuers were called after the vessel overturned on a stretch of the River Thames near Shepperton, Surrey, on Sunday evening. Four people - three women and one man - were taken to Frimley Park Hospital with minor injuries, South East Coast Ambulance Service NHS Trust confirmed earlier. A spokeswoman said: "A boat with six people in it capsized last night. We were asked to attend and conveyed four people to hospital. Two men were missing last night." A helicopter was initially used in a bid to find the men. Earlier, a Surrey police spokeswoman said: "At around 7.30pm yesterday, Surrey Police and Surrey Fire and Rescue Service attended the River Thames near Shepperton where a small boat had capsized. "Extensive searches were started immediately, including the use of the police helicopter but there was no trace of the two missing people." One of the men the divers have been searching for is local and in his 60s, while the other is from the Cambridge area and in his 70s. Police did not confirm which body they found. The other four passengers are in their 50s and 60s.

Joanna 'was not sexually assaulted'

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Image Police investigating the murder of Joanna Yeates have found no evidence she was sexually assaulted as they suggested more than one person may be responsible. Detectives are appealing for help in tracing a 4x4 vehicle seen near the spot where her snow-covered body was discovered on Christmas Day. But they also revealed they still do not know when and where the 25-year-old landscape architect died. Detective Chief Inspector Phil Jones of Avon and Somerset Police said: "At this stage there is no evidence to suggest that Joanna was sexually assaulted. However, I have not ruled out that there might have been a sexual motive." Appealing for help in finding the 4x4, he said: "We have had a number of reports of vehicles in Longwood Lane during the late Friday evening and early hours of Saturday morning, including a possibly light-coloured 4x4 vehicle. "This 4x4 and the other vehicles may be completely unconnected but I urge anyone in that car or any other driver in the vicinity that night to come forward." Speaking during a press conference, Mr Jones revealed that there were still significant gaps regarding Miss Yeates's final hours. "I am satisfied that Jo got back to her flat but I'm not able to speculate whether she let somebody into the flat, whether somebody was already in there or whether someone broke into the flat," he said. "At this time I cannot say where or when Jo was killed, or when her body was left on Longwood Lane. The significant snowfall in the early hours of Saturday December 18 has a considerable impact on this and I am working with numerous forensic specialists to determine the timings." The detective also raised the possibility of there being more than one person responsible. He said: "I can assure you, we are determined to solve this crime, and bring Jo's killers to justice." When asked about this comment later, he said: "I think that phrase emphasises that I am not making any assumptions in this case."

VAT rate rises from 17.5% to 20%

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Image The standard rate of VAT has increased from 17.5% to 20%, in a move designed to raise £13 billion a year to help balance the nation's public finances. Retailers have warned that the 2.5% hike will depress consumer spending in the high streets, while there are also fears it will fuel inflation and put upward pressure on pay settlements. Labour leader Ed Miliband on Monday branded it "the wrong tax at the wrong time". But Chancellor George Osborne defended the hike - announced in his emergency Budget in June 2010 - as "a powerful weapon to tackle debt" and challenged Labour to say what cuts it would make to cover the cost of scrapping it. Mr Osborne has previously said that the 20% rate is "not temporary" but a structural part of the tax system, leading economists to predict it will remain at least until the next general election, scheduled for 2015. The rise is the second VAT increase in a year, after Labour chancellor Alistair Darling restored the 17.5% rate last January having temporarily reduced it to 15% for 13 months to stimulate the economy during the recession. The change affects any VAT-registered business that sells or purchases goods or services that are subject to the standard rate. Most foodstuffs, children's clothing and books remain zero-rated and reduced rates remain on items such as children's car seats and supplies of domestic fuel and power. Online shopping group Kelkoo said the change would increase the price of a litre of petrol from £1.19 to £1.22, a digital camera from £131 to £133.79 and a Ford Focus car from £15,195 to £15,518. The British Beer & Pub Association said it would add 6p to the cost of a pint of beer, pushing it through the £3 barrier for the first time. Many shoppers are believed to have beaten the rise by buying big-ticket items in the New Year sales over the past few days before the new rate came into effect. A report by the Centre for Retail Research suggested consumers will spend an average of £324 less in the remainder of this year as a result, cutting UK retail sales by as much as £2.2 billion in the first quarter of 2011 alone.

Consulate staff 'held over weapons'

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Image Two staff members at the British Consulate in Jerusalem have been arrested for allegedly selling weapons. A Foreign Office spokesman said that two local staff members at the Jerusalem Consulate General had been detained by Israeli authorities. He said: "We are aware of reports that they may be charged with the illegal sale of weapons. We are urgently seeking confirmation of the charges. "We have been told by the Israeli authorities that the investigation into our two employees is unrelated to the work they do at the consulate. It is not appropriate to comment further on what is an ongoing legal process." The arrests are reportedly linked to a plot to fire a rocket at a football stadium. The two men, who were arrested on Sunday, allegedly helped obtain weapons for two other men planning the attack, the reports say. No rockets were found and the alleged plot was in its preliminary stages when police swooped on the pair of Palestinian residents from East Jerusalem. According to a local newspaper, the men were linked to militant groups including Hamas and were planning to attack Jerusalem's Teddy stadium, home of the Beitar football team, during a Premier League game. The report quoted details released by Israel's Shin Bet domestic security service, which said the pair acquired a number of pistols and aimed to build a cache of weapons and explosives. They had been investigating possible sites from where to launch the rocket and gathering information about security in the area, the security service added.

First-past-post system 'is broken'

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Image Last year's general election result was determined by less than 2% of voters, according to a think tank report which has denounced first-past-the-post voting as a "broken system" for choosing Westminster MPs. The report from the left-of-centre Institute for Public Policy Research comes ahead of the May 5 referendum on replacing first-past-the-post (FPTP) with the alternative vote (AV) system, under which voters rank candidates in order of preference. While supporters of FPTP - including most Conservatives and a large number of Labour MPs - argue it is the best way of producing strong governments, today's report argues that long-term changes in voting patterns mean the system has become a recipe for hung parliaments and coalitions in future. Only about 31% of voters - 9 million people - live in the marginal seats which form the main battlefields in elections under FPTP, found the IPPR. But the number whose votes made up the margin of victory in seats which actually changed hands was even smaller - just over 460,000, or 1.6% of the electorate. The figures meant that 69% of votes cast last May had little chance of making any difference to the result, while more than 98% did not make a decisive impact, said the think tank. More than a third (34.9%) of votes in the 2010 general election were cast for parties other than the "big two", increasing a trend which has seen Labour and the Tories together garner a dwindling share of support, found the report. While the two biggest parties between them secured 96.8% of the vote in 1951, that share has now fallen to just 65.1%. The increasing success of smaller parties makes single-party government less likely, with the major parties now requiring 85 more seats than their major rivals to secure power and 100 more to enjoy the kind of parliamentary majority needed to govern effectively. Even if Liberal Democrat representation fell from 57 MPs to 25 at the next election, the victorious party would need to return around 50 more MPs to Westminster than their main rivals to be confident of an outright majority. And the report also highlighted the inbuilt bias to the FPTP system which means Labour can win an absolute majority with a 3% lead over Tories, while the Conservatives would need an 11% advantage - leaving a 14% gap in which a hung Parliament is the most likely result.

Firms' finance chiefs 'optimistic'

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Image Finance chiefs at major UK companies are optimistic over prospects for growth in 2011, a survey has revealed. Chief financial officers' confidence rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the survey by accountancy firm Deloitte, while fears of a double dip have abated from the levels seen earlier in the year. Finance chiefs at the companies surveyed, which include 35 FTSE 100 and 45 FTSE 250 companies, are shifting to expansion strategies including taking on new staff and undertaking capital expenditure, according to the survey. Economists expect UK economic growth to have slowed in the fourth quarter of 2010, and to continue declining in the first half of this year before picking up later in 2011. Margaret Ewing, Deloitte partner and vice chairman, said: "If 2010 was the year of balance sheet rebuilding and cost-cutting, then 2011 looks set to be the year in which corporates start spending again. "A new emphasis on expansion by the UK's large companies lends support to the idea that the recovery is likely to broaden out during 2011 aided by growth in private sector hiring and capital spending." As they enter 2011, finance chiefs are increasingly positive on the outlook for revenues and are focussed on growth opportunities, the survey found. The most frequently cited opportunities are investing or undertaking acquisitions at lower prices, growing organically and expanding in emerging markets. But part of this optimism seems to reflect confidence about demand from overseas, Deloitte said. Only 39% of financial officers expect the UK to make the biggest contribution to the growth in their company' revenues in 2011 and 34% of financial officers see emerging markets, such as Brazil, India and China, as making the biggest contribution to revenue growth.

Earthquake hits northern England

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Image An earthquake has shaken northern England for the second time in a fortnight. The tremor, measuring 3.6 on the Richter scale, struck near Ripon, North Yorkshire, at 9.02pm on Monday and was felt as far afield as West Yorkshire, Tyne & Wear, and Cumbria. Residents living near the epicentre described hearing crockery rattling and doors shaking on their hinges for several seconds. The rumble followed a quake of magnitude 3.5 which struck in Coniston in the Lake District shortly on December 21. Chris Allinson, 17, was watching television with his family when he felt last night's quake hit his home in Ripon. The A-level student, who is studying at Giggleswick School, said: "I heard a loud rumbling like the sound of a big tractor passing the house outside. Things started shaking and the dogs started barking. It got louder and louder and I jumped up to get outside. "Then there was just this rush of sound like a snowdrift falling from a tiled roof, and after that, silence. We stood outside and stared at each other." Staff at the Swinton Park Hotel in Masham, 10 miles from the epicentre of the quake, also felt the earth move. One of the front of house staff, a 27-year-old who did not wish to be named, said two quakes hit the hotel. She said: "The first lasted three seconds or so and rattled everything on the shelves. Seconds later there was a second quake, shorter this time. I thought, 'That was an earthquake', but then thought it could not have been - you don't get earthquakes in Yorkshire." The British Geological Survey said the tremor struck about six miles west of Ripon. "Many people throughout the region have reported having felt this event," the organisation said. Dr Aoife O'Mongain from the BGS added: "It would have only lasted for a couple of seconds. And at that strength it is not likely that it would have caused any damage. People living in the vicinity may have felt their windows rattling as if a lorry was going past."
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